Welcome to our weekly analysis of the status of the 2020 campaign.
The week in numbers
Joe Biden’s lead on national survey averages, including The Upshot’s, has narrowed slightly this week – and has barely gone down below 10 percentage points but seems to remain calm there.
In national polls published by both the New York Times / Siena College and Quinnipiac University, Mr Biden led President Trump binary a strong example, among both the oldest and youngest voters, of how he has messed up the standard political calculus.
A Times / Siena poll in Montana published on Friday found that Mr Trump had a Six points lead there, and Senator Steve Daines, a pro-Trump Republican, appears to be holding his Democratic challenger, Governor Steve Bullock, off. Mr. Daines passed by three points in the closely observed race a difference that is within the error rate of the survey.
The Biden campaign reported far more money in the bank than the Trump campaign as of mid-October: $ 162 million to $ 43.6 million. The disparity ranged from $ 335 to $ 223 million when all party funds are included.
President Trump did what his advisors wanted him to do in Thursday night’s debate, even though he had no preparatory meetings: he did not interrupt former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and began to tone down. But with less than two weeks in the race and nearly 50 million votes already cast in the elections, the time is dwindling for a reset that will change the dynamics of a race whose dynamics haven’t changed much since March. Most of the conversation in the debate phase still revolved around the President’s handling of the coronavirus, where he offered little new.
He took responsibility for the 220,000 lives lost while diverting all guilt, all in one breath. “I take full responsibility, but China brought them here,” he said. “It’s not my fault.” He claimed that “2.2 million modeled people are expected to die,” a claim he repeats often but for which there is no clear support. Mr. Trump’s attempts to label Mr. Biden as corrupt and a Trojan horse of the left have failed (“he thinks he’s running against someone else,” Mr. Biden pushed back at one point). And the question of law and order that the president wanted to address has dwindled in most parts of the country since a summer of protests.
Stay informed about the 2020 election
Towards the end of the race, Mr Trump failed to lead the election to a referendum on himself: his coronavirus response, tone, and tweets.
What Trump’s rally plan says about the state of the race
In North Carolina, Mr. Trump performed this week in Gaston County, a reliably Republican county outside of Charlotte that has not had a general election candidate visit since President George HW Bush stopped him in 1992. In Florida, he attended The Villages, the largest age group in the country, which was once part of his core group of older voters. Next week, in Wisconsin, Mr. Trump will visit Waukesha, a county he won four years ago by his biggest lead in the state.
He works hard to hold onto what he has His rally schedule shows that his campaign has essentially given up the suburbs in some battlefield nations where he has bled support. “Everything we have seen of Trump politically, he always comes back to his grassroots,” said Doug Heye, former communications director of the Republican National Committee.
Trump believes in his own magic The president disregards all Covid-19 guidelines and holds large gatherings in states where the number of positive cases is increasing. It’s kind of a iteration of his endgame strategy in 2016, when his advisors told him he probably wouldn’t win, but he held rallies until the end of the race. Since then, he has credited himself for having pulled himself over the finish line. The difference this time around is that there’s still no external event – like James B. Comey, the former FBI director who announces new evidence related to Hillary Clinton’s email investigation – to fundamentally change the race .
His advisors believe the floor game could pull them off While the Democrats have relied more on digital advertising, the Trump campaign has been knocking on the door aggressively. Campaigners called the last weeks of the campaign to the end “White-Knuckling It” and said a November 3rd victory was largely due to organizers aggressively addressing voters in battlefield states, Mr. Trump himself says on the Stage.
What Early Voting Tells Us (And What Not)
It is a misnomer to see November 3rd as election day. Millions of Americans have already voted using methods such as early voting or postal voting in the mail. In fact, given the continued spread of the coronavirus, most experts believe that these presidential elections will see more Americans voting outside the personal ballot box than ever before.
This reality has led to some noticeable early voices in several states. However, forecasting early voting results on election day results has been a threat to election analysis for years. Here are some things we know – and don’t know – because of the number of ballots we have already cast.
Voter enthusiasm There is evidence that this presidential cycle will see voter turnout higher than it was four years ago. Several states, including Georgia and North Carolina, have broken voter turnout records. In Texas, populous Harris County will surpass its total 2016 vote in the early vote alone – more than 1.3 million people. This is because increased voter turnout was a feature of elections in Mr Trump’s presidency, from mid-term to voting rounds. It speaks to a reality that has been true for Mr. Trump for years – he inspires his passion to passionate passion, but also to significant setbacks.
Beware of projections Democrats are expected to cast more ballots in the early voting process. That does not mean, however, that a democratic victory is assured until election day, as both parties expect Mr Trump’s supporters to prefer a personal vote on November 3rd. This is for several reasons, including the fact that Democrats are more likely to live in urban areas and have longer waiting times. It’s also because Mr Trump and the Republicans railed against the postal vote.
The system lasts The election observers’ worst fear was a voting system that could not handle the surge in activity and would fail. So far the system has held up. In Georgia, initiatives such as converting a basketball arena into a socially distant voting station were a success. Election day will be the biggest stress test of all, but the run-up has sent encouraging signs to representatives of electoral integrity.
The Biden campaign bonus is
Mr. Biden’s campaign has a clear path to victory by flipping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. However, the campaign is increasingly hearing requests from Democrats in states that were once considered widespread, such as Georgia, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio.
However, Mr Biden’s campaign has long argued that the race is closer than it appears in polls and that resources must be saved for desperate states to win. Over the past few days, however, some signs have suggested that the late game Democrats are invading states considered to be in surplus. In part, they are following the advice of some prominent Democrats and large donor groups who have spoken out in favor of Mr Biden’s campaign that it takes a great victory to start a transformative presidency. Here’s what you should know about the Biden campaign strategy in deep red states.
Don’t expect Biden himself Mr Biden’s campaign has sent several surrogate mothers to Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas – including his run mate, California Senator Kamala Harris. The campaign wants these surplus states to feel engaged and supported. However, the campaign will remember how the Clinton campaign was ridiculed for caring more about hard-to-win states while neglecting the core battlefields.
You have the money Mr Biden raises a staggering amount of money and goes over a quarter of a billion dollars into the campaign’s final month. The campaign can afford to keep television commercials going in Georgia while lightning strikes in Pennsylvania.
The Senate’s control is in balance States like Georgia, Texas, and Iowa may not be necessary for Mr Biden to win the White House, but they are critical to answering the question of whether Democrats can retake the Senate. Mr Biden will be aware of this importance as much of former President Barack Obama’s agenda during his tenure was hampered by a Republican Senate that opposed him at every turn. Senate races in Georgia, Texas, and Iowa are almost statistically related. Since Mr Biden is still present in these states, he should also help the Democrats get over the line.
What you may have missed
College students can register to vote either on their campus or in their hometown, which leaves students with a strategic choice: their votes may be more likely to make a difference in a battlefield state or in a swing district.
Disinformation is even more widespread in this election cycle than it was in 2016. Colorado has launched a new initiative that will display social media ads and expand digital reach to help voters identify foreign misinformation. Very few states follow this example.
Shane Goldmacher, Isabella Grullón Paz and Giovanni Russonello contributed to the coverage.