As of Thursday morning, the nation has an average of 52,345 new cases per day, up 16% from the previous week. This trend affects health professionals in the cooler months.
“This is a very ominous sign. I think we are facing a pretty bad fall and winter,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, Professor and Dean of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.
“This is the time we could enter one of the worst periods of our epidemic and one of our worst periods in modern American public health,” he said. “I am very concerned about the nation.”
35 states have seen new Covid-19 cases increase by more than 10% in the last week compared to the previous week.
Only three states – Louisiana, Kentucky, and Vermont – have more than 10% drops in new cases this week compared to the previous week. The remaining 12 states – Hawaii, California, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, New York, Massachusetts, and Maine – hold steady.
As of Sunday, 21 states have hit their highest 7-day average of new cases since the pandemic began. This is evident from data from Johns Hopkins: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia , Wisconsin and Wyoming.
This type of spread is “quite worrying,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci on ABC’s Good Morning America Thursday.
“The problem is that when we step into the cooler season of fall, and ultimately the colder season of winter, as we do now, you don’t want to be in the vulnerable position where your basic daily infection is high and you put on weight instead of in going the other direction, “said Fauci.
In total, the virus has infected more than 7.9 million people in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins. More than 217,000 people have died, a number that will continue to rise.
A new ensemble forecast, released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of Between 229,000 and 240,000, will have passed by Nov. 7.
Maria Van Kerkhove, World Health Organization technical director for coronavirus, told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota that the “alarming situation” in the US and Europe – where cases are also increasing – “can be turned around.”
“We need to think about what we need to do as individuals,” she said, “and how each of our decisions can actually help end this pandemic.”
According to experts, herd immunity is not a way out of a pandemic
Wisconsin reported 3,747 new Covid-19 cases on Thursday – a new daily record, according to the state’s Department of Health. This prompted Governor Tony Evers to urge residents to get the spread under control by staying at home and wearing face covers when out.
“The longer it takes for everyone to take this virus seriously, the longer it will take for our economies and communities to get back on track,” Evers said at a press conference.
Illinois also reported the highest total in a day with 4,015 cases on Thursday. The state previously reported 5,368 cases on Sept. 4, but the data reported that day included some cases that had not been reported in the past few days, according to a press release from the Illinois Department of Public Health.
And Florida reported 3,356 cases on Thursday, the 11th day of that month, with the Department of Health reporting at least 2,200 new cases in a single day, according to CNN’s tally.
A vaccine remains the best way to end the Covid-19 pandemic, health experts say, adding that tracking herd immunity would be dangerous. The idea of letting the virus run uncontrollably through communities “misses the fundamental point that we are all connected,” said Dr. Thomas Frieden, former director of the CDC, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.
Peace responded to recent efforts to promote herd immunity in response to Covid-19. The idea is being driven by those who want to stop the economic damage caused by the pandemic.
Some groups could get a vaccine by the end of the year. But some politicians, hoping to reverse the economic chaos from the pandemic, have embraced the idea of letting the virus spread until enough people are infected and have developed immunity so that there is no place to go next can spread.
In a call to reporters on Monday, senior White House administrators discussed a controversial statement from scientists advocating such an approach.
But the idea is “a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence,” which has “significant morbidity and mortality throughout the population,” wrote 80 scientists from around the world in an open letter.
“Any infection somewhere is possibly a threat in a different place because even if you are feeling fine and can get over it with no problems or long-term consequences, you can pass it on to someone who dies from it. And that is exactly what we see all over the country.” said peace.
It is impossible to just protect the vulnerable from spreading, said Frieden. And if the virus is widespread, it would likely lead to recurring epidemics, as there is no evidence, according to the letter, that people are protected long term after infection.
The best way to get widespread immunity will be with a vaccine, according to Frieden.
“The concept (herd immunity) really comes from vaccines,” said Frieden. “If you vaccinate enough people, the disease stops spreading, and that can be 60%, 80%, 90% for various diseases.”
Peace comments were echoed Thursday by Van Kerkhove of the WHO who said the spread of the virus would lead to “unnecessary cases” and “unnecessary deaths” in the interests of herd immunity.
“This is not a strategy for this virus,” she said, “because there is so much we can do.”
Sacrifice Thanksgiving gatherings
Gathering at the table for a Thanksgiving meal may be a “sacred part of American tradition,” Fauci said, but the holiday may have to be very different this year, he told CBS Evening host Norah O’Donnell on Wednesday News.
“You may have to bite the bullet and sacrifice this social gathering, unless you are pretty sure the people you deal with aren’t infected. Either they were recently tested or they are living a lifestyle in you have no interaction with anyone but you and your family, “he said.
Small gatherings are becoming a growing source of coronavirus spread, said CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield speaking with the nation’s governors on Tuesday. Audio of the call was obtained from CNN.
“What we currently see as a growing threat is the acquisition of infections from small household gatherings,” Redfield said. “With the upcoming Thanksgiving Day in particular, we think it is very important to emphasize the vigilance of these ongoing mitigation measures in the budget.”
Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine at George Washington University, said Wednesday he would advise people not to have Thanksgiving dinners indoors with others who are not in their immediate household.
“If you are lucky enough to live in a part of the country where the weather will be temperate in November, do Thanksgiving outdoors. (But) I think of the … places in the country that have winter Coming early, I think you have to be really careful, “Reiner told CNN’s New Day.
“It’ll be a lot better next year. Let’s get through this and get through it safely.”
CNN’s Amanda Watts, Shelby Lin Erdman, Steve Almasy, Christina Maxouris Raja Razek, Lauren Mascarenhas, Jennifer Henderson, Rebekah Riess and Gisela Crespo contributed to this report.